These problems include fat tails (leptokurtosis), serial correlation, and volatility clustering. If you have read Benoit Mandelbrot’s book (with Richard Hudson), The (Mis)behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence, then you should note that C J is fractal in nature.Given data on the market, C J runs 2,000 simulations of the S 500 for periods as far as eighteen months into the future. I then use the results to assess the probability of various percentage changes in the S 500 Index.
iphone 6 plus case Since then, JNUG is down nearly 22%.Let’s update how that hedge has reacted to JNUG’s drop and look out how my site’s top 10 from February 1st have performed since.The February 1st Optimal Collar Hedge On JNUG As of February 1st’s close, this was the optimal, or least expensive, collar to hedge 1,000 shares of JNUG against a >19% decline by September, while not capping your possible upside at less than 21% by then. (screen captures via the Portfolio Armor iPhone app).As you can see at the bottom of the second screen capture above, the cost was negative, so an investor would have collected an amount equal to $400, or 2.44% of position value when opening this collar (calculated conservatively, using the ask price of the puts and the bid price of the calls).The idea behind this hedge was that the investor could tolerate a decline of 19% but no more than that. Let’s see where you’d be had you hedged then and held through Tuesday.How The Hedge Has Reacted To JNUG’s Drop Here’s an updated quote on the put leg as of Tuesday’s close (via Nasdaq):And here is an updated quote on the call leg:How That Hedge Ameliorated JNUG’s Drop JNUG closed at $16.42 on Thursday, February 1st. iphone 6 plus case
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